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The moneyline is the simplest of bets, decided by the straight-up winner and loser of each game. CLEVELAND BROWNS PLAY BY PLAY HOW TOKey draft picks: CB Martin Emerson, EDGE Alex Wright, WR David Bell, DT Perrion Winfrey, K Cade York, WR Michael Woods II How to bet on the Cleveland Browns Moneyline Tretter (cut), TE Austin Hooper (cut), LB Mack Wilson, CB Troy Hill Key losses: WR Jarvis Landry (cut), C J.C. Trades: QB Deshaun Watson, WR Amari Cooper, LB Chase Winovich Re-signings: TE David Njoku (franchise tag), LB Anthony Walker, OT Jack Conklin, CB Denzel Ward The sample size is admittedly tiny - just 10 plays - so any notion of statistical significance goes right out the window, but teams were able to successfully convert a first down on six of the 10 attempts, good for 20 percentage points over league average for the given down and distance.Key signings: WR Jakeem Grant, QB Jacoby Brisset, OL Ethan Pocic, EDGE Stephen Weatherly CLEVELAND BROWNS PLAY BY PLAY FREEIdeally, the scrum of suddenly free offensive linemen then begin to rumble downfield in search of a smaller linebacker or defensive back to block into the turf.Īcknowledging the fact that we have limited charting of play types, the screen is the only play type that has been successful the majority of the time on fourth down and between 5 and 9 yards to go. A well-executed screen usually requires the QB to wait until the opposing linemen are almost on him before he tosses the ball to the receiver. Linemen - usually the center and two guards - begin the play blocking as normal but will release their defenders in an attempt to get them to overcommit to rushing the quarterback. Screen passes are short passes to a receiver that start off looking like deeper passes or runs. But if we look at the relative frequency of each type of play call and break each out by success or failure, there is a play type that historically has seen reasonable success on fourth and 5 or more: the screen pass. There simply isn’t a lot of evidence to guide decision making in these situations. Sample sizes are notoriously small for fourth- and- long plays due to the NFL’s aversion to aggressive play calling, but among the play types for which we have data, play-action is the most common. Historical charting is somewhat limited in the NFL, but we found five other play types we could compare to the draw across the period spanning from 2009 to 2019. This made us wonder if there were play types that have historically been successful in fourth-and-long situations. ![]() It’s hard to blame a specific play type when the odds against success are stacked so high. Meanwhile, the success rate for all fourth-down plays with exactly 9 yards to go - the same distance Kitchens was faced with - is an anemic 35.4 percent. 1 And the conversion rate on a slightly more recent sample of plays - there have been 16 since 2009, the year our dataset begins - is a robust 62.5 percent, so the play can work in the right situations. Draws work more often than not when they are called on fourth and short, for instance. ![]() Still, faulting Kitchens for calling a draw just because few have been called historically from that distance might be unfair. Among this small sample, just one draw has successfully converted to a new set of downs with more than 3 yards to go - and the quarterback responsible was noted gridiron sorcerer Ryan Fitzpatrick back when he was starting for the Buffalo Bills in 2011. In that same period, no team outside of Cleveland has called a draw on fourth down with more than 7 yards to go. Since 2006 - the first year ESPN began tracking play types - teams have dialed up a draw just 26 times on fourth down, including the Browns’ failed attempt. But even given the results-oriented bias of the NFL fanbase, a draw play on fourth down and long is still a very rare and deeply contrarian move. CLEVELAND BROWNS PLAY BY PLAY TVThe analytically inclined are sometimes guilty of screaming at the TV for teams to be aggressive on fourth down and then - if the play is unsuccessful - immediately turning around and loudly complaining about the play call. To be fair to Kitchens, it was a bold call in adverse circumstances. The version the Browns ran gained just 2 yards, so Cleveland turned the ball over on downs. ![]() A draw play is designed to make the defense believe that a pass is coming, but instead results in a delayed handoff to the running back. ![]()
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